A Fertilizer Shortage Is Coming, and Smallholder Farms Will Be Hit First

The World Bank estimates fertilizer prices could rise by 30% this year, and that could be just the beginning.

“Shortages in fertilizer supply mark the beginning of a vicious cycle for lower-income farmers around the world—their margins are about to be squeezed,” explained our Board Chair, Kevin Stark.

Governments in nations where we serve, like India and Kyrgyzstan, are already encouraging farmers to cut back on fertilizer usage.

“Larger farms will weather this, though they won’t like it,” Kevin said. “But smallholder farmers in low-access nations, like the ones where we serve, will suffer over time.”

As we've seen many times before, war creates disruption. While we lament the conflicts and the pain they cause, we also know that wise responses to disruption can create opportunities for flourishing.

“Nitrogen is the most critical and concerning shortage,” Kevin explained. “Most farmers can get by for a while without phosphorus, but eventually that lack will come back to bite them. Crops won't grow as well, and the nutritional content will be less.”

So what does this mean for our work together?

Bottom line: prepare for two to three years of volatility. This is unlikely to be a one-off nitrogen shortage.

But history has shown that challenges like these often drive innovation. When critical inputs become scarce, farmers and agricultural leaders are forced to find new ways to become more efficient and less dependent on the systems that created the shortage in the first place.

That's why, when things get tough for farmers, we lean in with curiosity and creativity. Our team of business owners and farm strategists has worked in these kinds of conditions before. They know how to do more with less, and we'll be working to transfer that knowledge to the communities we serve.

Efficiency with our inputs will be critical.

The old ways of applying fertilizer and other resources may not serve us well in leaner days. It will be our job to help our partners make the most of the resources they do have while introducing technologies, practices, and products that can reduce dependency on imported inputs over the long term.

The suffering facing smallholder farmers will be very real. But we also see this moment as an opportunity to build stronger, more resilient farms—ones that are better equipped to meet critical needs without relying so heavily on imports and commercial products.

Many will use this challenge as an opportunity to point fingers and take political shots. Others will slide into despair and keep doom-scrolling.

But we will choose to see this as yet another opportunity to fulfill our calling—our mandate to impact lives through agriculture for the Kingdom.

It's a big problem, and it won't be solved by a single organization. But as Kevin likes to say, “How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time.”